2020 Q1 ending with the continuing COVID-19 epidemic
今天是美國時間三月最後一天，2020的第一季就這樣在武漢病毒的發威中結束。美股道瓊就這樣從2/12的歷史高點29,551.42，於3/23拉了超長地線到18,591.93，總算近一週開始止穩收在21,917.16。希望明天愚人節，可別太驚嚇啊！
Dow Jones Industrial Average
3/31 21,917.16 −410.32 (1.84%)
1/2 28,868.80
2/12 29,551.42
3/23 18,591.93
美國近3週大量增加COVID-19的檢測量目前已超過100萬達到1,048,971，確診數來到184,770(佔總檢測量17.62%)，死亡人數達3,746人(佔確診案例2.03%)，6,043人康復。若是以南韓作為對照，南韓直到3/30檢測量達到395,194，9,786 confirmed cases(佔總檢測量2.48%)，死亡人數162 (佔確診案例1.66%)。
在疫苗或藥物出現曙光前，特別是已經重災區的全州或部分州城市，仍必須保持social distancing/ stay-home or shelter-in-place。
今日閱讀筆記如下：
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Case Fatality Rate for COVID-19 Near 1.4%, Increases With Age
(Neil Osterweil, March 31, 2020)
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Coronavirus in the US: How all 50 states are responding to this public health emergency (Jorge L. Ortiz)
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Covid-19 testing: overcoming challenges in the next phase of the epidemic
By ARJUN K. MANRAI and KENNETH D. MANDLMARCH 31, 2020
“Now that testing is coming on line at scale, a critical next step is to design a population-based sampling approach that includes accurate, individual-level, de-identified information about whether tested patients had clinical courses consistent with Covid-19, their comorbidities, medications, and, of course, survival. The clinical validity of the testing strategy is paramount. Before this information emerges, strategies to reduce spread including social distancing, ceasing nonessential activity, and closing schools remain essential. But we should rapidly assess the sensitivity and specificity of Covid-19 diagnostics and serology testing as well as their performance across different populations.
Let’s hope what we learn from increased testing in the general population is encouraging and leads to nimble and targeted policy making in the next phases of the pandemic.
About the author:
Arjun K. Manrai, Ph.D. is in the Computational Health Informatics Program at Boston Children’s Hospital and is an assistant professor of pediatrics and biomedical informatics at Harvard Medical School. Kenneth D. Mandl, M.D. is director of the Computational Health Informatics Program at Boston Children’s Hospital and professor of pediatrics and biomedical informatics at Harvard Medical School.”
